ECB policymaker says central bank would have to take action if euro gains continue. The single currency has hit a four-and-a-half year high against the dollar this week, with EUR/USD clipping above the 1.2000 mark for the first time since June 2021. The pressure on the dollar continues to grow amid a myriad of factors, with added pressure coming from potential intervention from Tokyo. The ECB might have to take action and retain "full optionality" on how to go about that.

ECB policymaker says central bank would have to take action if euro gains continue

The article discusses the potential interest rate changes in 2026 and how the Fed's policy could shift. The author predicts that the Fed will keep interest rates low for an extended period, which would lead to a stronger US Dollar. However, the author also notes that the Fed's policy could shift if there are significant changes in the economy. The impact of the Fed's decision on the US Dollar will be crucial in determining the future direction of the currency. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the potential interest rate changes and their impact on the US Dollar.

What to Expect for Interest Rates in 2026 and How Fed Policy Could Shift - Forbes

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting on February 18 is highly anticipated, with markets pricing in a 99% probability of holding the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%. Recent data reveals a mixed outlook: Q4 CPI hit 3.1% (above target), while Q3 GDP growth exceeded forecasts, signaling inflationary pressures. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman’s hawkish remarks contrast with recent dovish signals, suggesting a cautious stance. Markets still expect ~37.6 basis points of rate hikes by year-end, implying potential future tightening. The NZD’s trajectory hinges on whether the RBNZ signals a near-term pivot or maintains neutrality. This analysis carries high credibility due to direct RBNZ references and economist polls, though the neutral sentiment reflects uncertainty around policy divergence.

What is priced in for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting?

Bank of America forecasts the Korean won will strengthen by 2026 due to a semiconductor supercycle and trade turnover growth. The supercycle drives a record trade surplus, increasing foreign currency inflows and strengthening the won. Government support and favorable external currency dynamics will also contribute to the won's growth. Investors should closely monitor developments in South Korea.

Korean Won: On the Way to Strengthening in 2026 – Bank of America forecast

The US Dollar Index (DXY) attracts bids after a weak opening around 97.50 and turns slightly positive to near 97.75 during the European trading session on Thursday. Investors look beyond the US Supreme Court's ruling against President Donald Trump's tariff policy, believing that Washington will find a way to keep trade deals with other nations intact.

US Dollar Index regains ground near 97.50 as investors look beyond US tariff uncertainty

The GBP/USD pair remains in the positive territory for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.3560 during the early European hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the US Dollar struggles amid ongoing uncertainty over the White House's economic policies. However, the upside of the GBP/USD pair could be restrained as the Pound Sterling may face challenges amid dovish sentiment surrounding the Bank of England's policy outlook.

Pound Sterling remains stronger despite BoE rate cut bets

The AUD/JPY cross jumps to near its two-week high around 110.70, driven by hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data. The technical analysis suggests that the AUD/JPY is likely to continue its upward trend, with the next upside objective at 112.50. The bullish momentum is intact, with no clear exhaustion signal yet.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Jumps to near two-week high above 110.50, bullish momentum prevails

Federal Reserve President of the Bank of Richmond Thomas Barkin said that monetary policy is 'well positioned' to deal with the risks around the economic outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.88, up 0.14% on the day. The Federal Reserve holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.

Fed's Barkin: Monetary policy is currently well-positioned for risks

OCBC's Christopher Wong highlights that strong January labour data keep Reserve Bank of Australia hike risks alive, lending support to the Australian Dollar despite geopolitical headwinds. With unemployment below RBA projections and markets pricing nearly a full 25 bp hike by June, OCBC maintains a constructive view and targets AUD/USD at 0.73 by end-2026. Labour strength sustains RBA hike expectations, but the currency gained only modestly as geopolitical worries weighed on global equities overnight. A firmer global pro-cyclical backdrop should provide a more constructive base for further AUD strength, and we continue to target AUDUSD at 0.73 by end-2026. Australia's unemployment rate held broadly steady at 4.1% in January, while full-time hiring posted another solid month. Unemployment is running below the RBA's February projections (4.3% for 2Q26), which should keep the central bank's tone relatively hawkish.

AUD/USD: Hawkish data underpins gradual gains – OCBC

The article discusses the EUR/USD pair, which has fully reversed its late-January rally and is now dropping about 2.5% back toward its opening 2026 level. The softer Eurozone inflation has increased modest ECB rate-cut pricing, while speculation about President Lagarde's tenure and the hawkish tilt of potential successors adds uncertainty. The inflation dynamics remain the key policy driver, and the article highlights the risks to the forecast, including a potential rate cut. The data will have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair and will be closely watched by investors.

EUR/USD: January rally unwinds on ECB risks – MUFG

Global rates are firming as Fed repricing continues, with the long-end drifting higher after stronger U.S. data and hawkish interpretation of Fed minutes. The United States (UST) 2Y yield is around 3.48%, while the 10Y yield is around 4.10-4.13%. The United Kingdom 10Y Gilt yield is around 4.48-4.55%, supported by a sticky wage/inflation backdrop. The Germany 10Y Bund yield is around 2.83-2.88%, while the France 10Y OAT yield is around 3.53-3.58%. The Italy 10Y BTP yield is around 3.45-3.50%, with a spread vs. Bund broadly stable. The Japan 10Y yield is around 0.10-0.15%.

Market Snapshot February 20th 2026

EUR/USD extends its decline on Thursday, sliding to its lowest level since January 23 as fading expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts support the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the Euro (EUR). Upbeat US economic data further lifted the Greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.00, its highest level since February 6. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K for the week ending February 14, well below the 225K forecast and down from the previous 229K. The four-week moving average eased to 219K from 220K. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey surged to 16.3 in February, beating expectations of 8.5 and improving from 12.6 in January.

EUR/USD falls to four-week low on strong US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed data

The USD/INR pair is expected to open strongly on Friday, driven by the firm US dollar. This news is of high quality, credibility, and importance, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. The USD/INR pair is likely to continue its upward momentum, driven by the strong US dollar.

USD/INR eyes strong opening on Friday amid firm US Dollar

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading highly volatile against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January. The data shows a disinflationary trend, with headline CPI dropping to 3% and the Retail Price Index falling to 3.8% from 4.2%. This reinforces expectations for further Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts from the current 3.75%. The FOMC minutes should offer more detail on the committee's tolerance for easing, while a batch of US housing and durable goods data rounds out a busy session. The GBP/USD pair is trading flat at around 1.3570 during the European trading session on Wednesday.

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD slips as UK CPI eases and FOMC minutes loom

The Federal Reserve's patient-sounding commentary and officials' statements have tempered rate-cut expectations, leading to a slight reduction in 2026 rate-cut pricing. This has resulted in a modest increase in two-year Treasury yields and a flattening of the yield curve. The USD/JPY has been affected by this development.

USD: Fed patience tempers 2026 easing hopes – Deutsche Bank

The U.K. employment change figure for January reflected a 28.6K increase in joblessness versus the estimated 22.8K gain, while the unemployment rate ticked higher from 5.1% to 5.2%. Average hourly earnings also fell short of expectations in the three-month period ending in December 2025, as wage growth slowed from 4.6% to 4.2% instead of holding steady. The divergence between public and private sector pay is also worth noting. While headline wage growth has continued to moderate, which is typically welcomed by BOE policymakers, the public sector's 7.0% gain contrasts sharply with private sector workers, whose real wages were essentially stagnant once adjusted for inflation. The broad-based weakness in the British pound likely reflects markets pricing in stronger odds of further easing by the BOE, as the central bank is managing a deteriorating labor market and slowing wage growth.

Pound Takes a Hit As U.K. Employment Data Missed Estimates

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% after concluding its first monetary policy meeting of this year. The decision to keep its benchmark rate steady would follow three consecutive cuts, signaling a pause in the current easing cycle. RBNZ Governor Dr. Anna Breman, who is debuting at her first Monetary Policy Committee meeting, is also set to hold her first post-monetary policy meeting press conference at 02:00 GMT. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could see a big reaction if the RBNZ surprises or offers clear hints on the path forward on interest rates. The real question is whether the Kiwi central bank signals an end to the easing cycle amid rising inflation expectations, stabilizing labor market and a gradual economic recovery.

RBNZ set to hold interest rate as new Governor Breman takes center stage

ING's Francesco Pesole argues that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's November 2025 projections underestimated inflation. Recent CPI data overshooting forecasts. ING expects the RBNZ to keep rates on hold in February but sees higher inflation projections and an earlier rate-hike path, with two hikes in 2026 and another in 2027.

RBNZ: Inflation risks and delayed cuts – ING

The Russian central bank cut its key rate by 50bps and raised its 2026 inflation forecast. The bank also reduced its current account surplus and oil price assumption. This suggests a dovish stance and a potential increase in USD/RUB. Commerzbank expects USD/RUB to trend back toward 100.0 over coming quarters. The CBR's easing bias and softer external backdrop support this view.

RUB: Dovish CBR and weaker flows point higher USD/RUB – Commerzbank

The USD’s struggles persist as soft US CPI data fuels Fed rate cut expectations, with futures pricing **62bps of easing** by year-end. Despite strong labor market data, the 'sell America' sentiment lingers, dampening USD recovery. EUR/USD faces downside pressure, with ING warning of a break below **1.180** as more likely than a rally to **1.20**, citing persistent 'buy-the-dip' behavior. GBP/USD remains vulnerable due to political uncertainty, with Keir Starmer’s leadership at risk. USD/JPY weakened after Japan’s **0.2% Q4 GDP growth** (vs. 1.6% forecast), signaling fiscal stimulus inefficacy. AUD/USD holds near three-year highs on RBA hawkishness, while USD/CNY remains stable amid holiday liquidity constraints. The article’s analysis is credible, though the USD’s correction lacks high-impact macro catalysts.

Dollar struggles to post gains; yen suffers from weak growth data

The article reports on the Swiss inflation data and Eurozone GDP figures, which had a negative impact on the EUR/CHF pair. The Swiss inflation data showed a decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI), while the Eurozone GDP figures met expectations but offered limited support to the Euro. The article also mentions the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) expected policy stance and the correlation between the Euro (EUR) and the Swiss Franc (CHF).

EUR/CHF eases as Swiss inflation remains muted and Eurozone GDP meets forecasts

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild gains around 1.3580 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on a stronger-than-expected employment report. The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, above the market consensus of 70,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday.

Canadian Dollar edges lower below 1.3600 as strong US NFP data boosts US Dollar

The US jobs report showed a surprisingly firm US economy, with Nonfarm Payrolls rising by 130K in January, beating market expectations. The Unemployment Rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%. The data dampened near-term rate-cut expectations and reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to stay on hold for longer before resuming easing. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading flat near 96.95, after slipping to an intraday low around 96.49 earlier in the day. The strong US jobs data weighed on the EUR/USD pair, which came under brief pressure and slid about 68 pips to an intraday low near 1.1833.

EUR/USD dips briefly after upbeat US jobs data trims Fed rate-cut bets

The Australian Dollar has gained nearly 6.5% against the US Dollar this year, supported by the RBA's early rate hikes and hawkish comments from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. Markets now expect another RBA hike as soon as May, while MUFG continues to recommend a long AUD/GBP trade amid policy divergence with the more dovish Bank of England.

AUD: Hawkish RBA stance underpins gains – MUFG

Nomura expects Euro area GDP growth to accelerate in 2026-2027 to around 1.7-1.8% year-on-year, above estimated potential of roughly 1.1-1.2%. They see stronger growth, especially in Germany and Spain, as a key driver of domestic inflation pressures, although spare industrial capacity and underemployment in Germany could temper the upside.

Euro area: Above-potential GDP seen lifting inflation – Nomura

The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar due to reduced Chinese Treasury exposure and improved risk appetite. This has led to a bullish sentiment in the EUR/USD pair, with the pair trading above 1.1900. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its monetary policy stance, with inflation expectations fully anchored. The Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if a deviation from the ECB's 2% medium-term target is seen, the Euro may weaken.

EUR/USD soars past 1.1900 as China treasury news sinks US Dollar

USD/CAD is holding a broader bearish structure on the daily chart, trading near 1.3560 after breaking the long-term uptrend from 2021 during 2025. The pair sits well below both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3787 and the 200-day EMA around 1.3909, confirming sustained downside pressure. A corrective bounce from the January 30 low at 1.3480 carried the pair to resistance near 1.3700 before stalling, and the pair has since consolidated in a range between roughly 1.3600 and 1.3710.

Canadian Dollar steps up as US Dollar falters

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains on the front foot against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as a softer Greenback and firmer Oil prices continue to underpin the Loonie.

USD/CAD slips below 1.3600 on softer Greenback and steady Oil prices

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's coalition secured a supermajority, giving her a strong mandate for tax cuts and higher military spending. The article discusses the implications of this for the Japanese economy and the JPY exchange rate.

JPY: Takaichi victory fuels markets and policy shift – Danske Bank

Gold has surged past the $5,000 psychological mark, driven by China's buying and Fed rate-cut bets. The People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January, while dovish US Federal Reserve expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence dragged the US Dollar lower. Despite a combination of supporting factors, the commodity remains below last week's swing high. The XAU/USD bulls also seem reluctant ahead of the delayed release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Wednesday.

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