US-China Trade Tensions & USD: Policy Shifts Fuel Uncertainty

Recent US Supreme Court rulings against President Trump's tariffs, followed by his subsequent raising of global tariffs to 15%, have injected significant uncertainty into the US trade landscape, impacting the US Dollar (USD). Initially, the USD benefited from safe-haven flows amid the turmoil, stabilizing against rivals despite the policy chaos. However, the shifting policy and questions about future US trade strategies are creating headwinds. The PBOC maintained its Loan Prime Rates, while ING anticipates a bearish outlook for the USD, projecting EUR/USD to reach 1.22 due to expected Fed rate cuts and softer US growth. Other currencies, like the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and British Pound (GBP), have seen gains as the USD faces pressure. The situation is further complicated by mixed US economic data, including slower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and lower PMI figures. Asia, particularly exporters like China, India, and Vietnam, are expected to benefit from the shift away from reciprocal tariffs. Overall, the market is closely monitoring Federal Reserve communications for guidance on future interest rate policy.