Global economic growth decelerated significantly in March, with multiple major economies reporting substantial slowdowns in business activity. Preliminary data from the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan all point to weakening demand and increased inflationary pressures linked to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. S&P Global’s PMIs revealed a sharp rise in input costs – the fastest pace in over three years in some regions – driven by surging energy prices and disrupted supply chains, particularly impacting manufacturing. The Eurozone composite PMI nearly stalled at 50.5, while the US saw growth fall to an 11-month low. The UK experienced a six-month low in expansion, and Japan’s growth slowed to a three-month pace. German firms were already pessimistic about foreign business *before* the recent escalation, citing rising trade barriers. New orders declined in several regions, and businesses are increasingly citing geopolitical uncertainty as a factor impacting investment and consumer confidence. Firms are responding by cutting jobs, building safety stocks, and postponing projects. The combination of slowing growth and rising inflation raises concerns about potential stagflation.
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