Global economic growth is decelerating, significantly impacted by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. Flash PMIs across major economies – the US, Eurozone, UK, France, Germany, and Japan – indicate a marked slowdown in business activity in March. The US saw growth fall to an eleven-month low, with the Eurozone nearing stagnation and the UK experiencing a six-month low. France trimmed its growth outlook, citing rising inflation linked to the Iran conflict. German firms were already pessimistic about foreign business *before* the recent escalation, and Japan’s private sector expansion slowed. A common thread across these regions is a surge in input costs, driven by higher energy prices and disrupted supply chains, particularly affecting manufacturing. Services sectors are particularly vulnerable to demand destruction due to increased uncertainty and cost of living pressures. While manufacturing showed some resilience in certain areas (Germany, Japan), overall new orders are declining, and businesses are increasingly cautious about investment and hiring, with some even reducing headcounts. The situation is described as potentially stagflationary, combining slowing growth with rising inflation.
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