The foreign exchange market on March 25, 2026, was heavily influenced by fluctuating geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding US-Iran ceasefire talks. Initial optimism gave way to skepticism as Iran continued military actions, boosting the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. Stronger-than-expected U.S. trade price reports further supported the dollar, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged period of stable interest rates by the Federal Reserve. WTI crude oil surged above $90/barrel despite a large inventory build, reflecting persistent war-risk premiums. Global sovereign yields remained elevated, anchored by energy-driven inflation expectations and cautious central bank approaches to easing monetary policy. Australian CPI data cooled slightly but the AUD weakened due to the escalating geopolitical situation. Global PMIs signaled potential stagflation, adding to market uncertainty. EUR/CHF is approaching key resistance, with the SNB signaling potential intervention. USDCAD confirmed a breakout, signaling potential further growth. Overall, markets are exhibiting caution, balancing economic data with heightened geopolitical risks.
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