GBP Holds Gains Amid BoE Rate Cut Bets & USD Weakness

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is currently maintaining weekly gains against the US Dollar (USD), trading around 1.3560-1.3565 as of February 26, 2026. This strength is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy following the President’s defense of tariffs and criticism of the Supreme Court. UK inflation fell to 3.0% in January, lower than expected and the lowest since mid-2025, significantly increasing expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) on March 19th – currently priced at around 80%. Despite these dovish signals, the GBP has remained resilient, supported by firmer UK growth data and Governor Bailey’s cautious approach to explicitly signaling a rate cut. However, analysts at BNY Mellon highlight structural headwinds, including weak household demand and political uncertainty, maintaining a defensive stance on the currency. A potential Labour defeat in a key by-election could briefly weigh on the Pound. While improved productivity could boost the UK equity outlook, political risks and BoE policy are expected to create short-term volatility. Technical indicators for GBP/USD present a mixed outlook, with support from the Ichimoku cloud but bearish signals from diverging Tenkan/Kijun-sen lines.