Bitcoin experienced a volatile week, briefly rallying to $74,000 before falling back to the $65,000-$69,000 range due to a confluence of macroeconomic factors. A weaker-than-expected US jobs report (92,000 jobs lost) and surging oil prices (exceeding $115/barrel due to Middle East tensions) fueled stagflation fears and prompted risk-off sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw initial inflows followed by significant outflows, mirroring the market's uncertainty. Simultaneously, Bitcoin is nearing a crucial milestone – surpassing 20 million coins in circulation (95% of the 21 million cap), reinforcing its scarcity narrative. Wall Street analysts are increasingly warning of a potential market crash, with one analyst raising the probability to 35%. Despite the volatility, negative funding rates suggest potential for a bullish reversal. Prediction markets are also gaining traction, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi attracting significant investment. Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly correlated with geopolitical events and oil prices.
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